Bridges Weekly Trade News Digest • Volume 10 • Number 17 • 17th May 2006
Lamy: Talks Now In ‘Red Zone,’ Members Need To Compromise
Time is running out for WTO Members to reach a framework deal on Doha Round subsidy and tariff cuts, Director-General Pascal Lamy warned on 15 May. "We are now in the red zone, and… we are not far from the red part of this red zone," he told the General Council, "the more we move into the year, the more we risk to fail in our endeavour to conclude the round." Nevertheless, he insisted that an agreement remained within grasp if countries are willing to compromise.
The WTO chief reminded delegates that after failing to meet an end-April deadline to establish ‘modalities’ for cutting agricultural tariffs, farm subsidies and duties on industrial goods, they had recognized that only "weeks rather than months" remained in which to do so (see BRIDGES Weekly, 3 May 2006). Continuous negotiations since the beginning of the month on agriculture and non-agricultural market access (NAMA) have thus far produced intense discussions, but little in the way of agreement.
Lamy urged Members to find their "second wind" and make the compromises necessary for the "production of texts for ministerial discussion in the coming weeks." He did not, however, specify whether these discussions would be at the WTO in Geneva, elsewhere, or simply in countries’ capitals. Some top trade envoys are planning to go to Geneva in the second half of June, including future US Trade Representative Susan Schwab. Ministers attending the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) summit in Paris on 23-24 May might also get together to discuss the WTO negotiations.
Whether ministers have anything to discuss in June will depend on progress in the agriculture and NAMA negotiating groups, which will be meeting non-stop through the middle of the month. Lamy said that delegations must improve their "engagement… in bridging gaps and finding consensus." "Members cannot rely on Chairs to produce convergence out of thin air," he added. "They need to actively participate in convergence-building by tabling papers, discussing hypotheses and simulations and definitively abandoning well-known positions."
Lamy stressed that progress had been made in areas of the Doha agenda that are not "headline catchers," but that it could be lost "if negotiators fail to unlock the modalities in agriculture and NAMA in the coming weeks." As an example, he pointed to recent steps towards expanding and improving the Integrated Framework, a multi-agency programme that provides trade-related technical assistance to least-developed countries (LDCs).
Most governments still insist they are committed to concluding the round by the end of 2006, before the US presidential administration loses its ‘fast-track’ ability to negotiate trade agreements and submit them to Congress without the possibility of major amendments. It is generally believed that to have a chance of doing so, Members need to agree on modalities before the end of July.
Sources report that Cuba intervened at the meeting to argue that Members should explore the costs and benefits of prolonging the round past the end of 2006, which many say would lead to a long period of ‘hibernation’ in the negotiations. It argued that at present, rich countries stood to gain the most from the proposals on the table, an absurdity for a ‘development round.’ Cuba blamed developed countries for the deadlock in the negotiations, suggesting that they lacked the will to address imbalances resulting from the Uruguay Round.
The high number of small meetings during the course of recent weeks also drew some attention. Venezuela noted that the intensified negotiations seemed to be driven by the "ghost of exclusion." Paraguay, on behalf of the so-called ‘informal group’ of developing countries, warned that haste might impair transparency towards all Members, which in turn could compromise the legitimacy of any agreement reached.
The gathering did witness a rare moment of apparent consensus: hearty agreement to Zambian Ambassador Love Mtesa’s suggestion that it was "vitally important" for all meetings to end by 4pm during the upcoming football World Cup, in order to allow negotiators to watch the matches. One source who attended the meeting regretfully reported that the comment appeared to have been made in jest.
The next General Council is scheduled for 27-28 July.
ICTSD reporting; "Zambian ambassador says WTO meetings shouldn’t conflict with World Cup," ASSOCIATED PRESS, 15 May 2006.